October 24, 2009

The Competition

Filed under: Inscription,wowbanker — Tags: — Kevmar @ 8:00 am

Normally I ignore the competition. I mean that I usually care less at what they do and do my own thing. I react to the market more than what an individual is doing. I would imagine that I miss some opportunities to mess with them by ignoring them. Recently I cut back my presence in the glyph market. Posting fewer times and not crafting as often. That threshold that I used to have lower than everyone else has been pulled up. So my market is very cutthroat at the moment and I am adjusting to let everyone else fight each other.

I decided this is a nice time to take a look at who they are. I put together a spread sheet and logged various details. What class of glyphs, min and max buyouts, durations, post counts. I ended up with over 50 names of posters. Some only had a few up so I didn’t record much more than the posting name and what looked like min buyouts.

I found 7 major player that covered all glyphs with a single character. I found one player that used 3 atls and was able to connect them to each other. I also use 3 alts and I believe it would be very easy for my competition to connect them to me. Of those 8 other players, 3 of them post their entire inventory for 48 hours. 2 of them post 2 at a time for 48 hours. 3.07g was the highest threshold of them. Looks like 2 do not have a threshold. Only 2 of them had a high fallback (60g ish) and the others had fallbacks of 7-14g.

Of the remaining names on the list I found 7 people posting glyphs under 1g, 11 people posting some 1-2g. Most people posted with 48 hour auctions. I saw about 5 listings where the glyphs were in a stack.

I also saw a few people with a small representation that I know also work the market. I expected to find them as one of the major players but they had a small representation on the AH. Many things could cause this so I will not rule them out. They could be more selective with the glyphs they are posting in this market now or even giving it a chance to reset.

So I will say this market feels more cut throat than before. This last week I only crafted twice and posted less than half of what I normally do and had 740g a day in average sales over the last 6 days. That is way down from the 3-5k a day I was pulling a month ago. But I’ll hang back collecting my small sales and be ready to dive in whenever the market resets.

October 17, 2009

Getting Ink CoD

Filed under: Inscription,wowbanker — Tags: — Kevmar @ 3:00 pm

We were raiding last night and someone in the raid spent the night milling and inking. I tossed some questions his way to see what part of the inscription market he is in. It turns out its the Snowfall Ink market. With the price of them up, he farms herbs and sells the Snowfall. All his ink of the sea gets converted into snowfall.

We got a deal worked out where he sends me that ink of the sea directly now. First time I ever pulled this off. Only time will tell if it sticks. I have had many farmers set up to CoD stuff that stop after 2-3 batches. When I logged in today I had 30 stacks waiting for me.

I expect that is what he had in stock. I let him know I will use as much as he send me. Even if I don’t bounce production back up to match it, rebuilding my stockpile of ink of the sea is never a bad thing.

October 14, 2009

Creature of habit

Filed under: Inscription,Thoughts,wowbanker — Tags: — Kevmar @ 5:09 am

I am very much a creature of habit or I run on auto pilot sometimes. There are times when I am driving someplace and the destination takes the same path that I take to work. I will catch myself trying to finish the route to work and almost miss the path to my target destination. I eat at the same place almost every day. It’s a fast food place 1/2 block from work. I also refill my drink as I leave every time.

Today I walked out the door and could not remember if I just filled up my drink or not. I look at the drink and it is full so I must have done that. Then I remember that I did the exact same thing the day before. So I let my mind wonder about other time I have done that or other things I do that with.

A few weeks ago, that was how I ran my glyphs. Total auto pilot. I ran a tight schedule for so long that it became part of my day. Next thing I knew every thing I did to make glyphs was mindless and just doing the motions. I am off that schedule now but I could easily fall back into it. That had a big part to play in how I could keep such a big glyph opperation going for so long.

I remember talking about it to my wife about what I was doing. I basicly said I was spending more time doing this than anyone else possibly could. A good deal of the time was 1/2 afk.

October 13, 2009

Why do glyphs fallback?

Filed under: Inscription,wowbanker — Tags: — Kevmar @ 5:31 am

In a market where QA dominates the undercutting, why do we ever see any glyphs post at fall back prices? I am not talking about when you reset a glyph. I know why that happens. It’s all those other ones.

I know I have very close to full coverage (I am 9 glyphs from having them all). I know not all my competition has every one of them, but there are enough players that everything is covered by several posters. With me posting as hard as I am, and them posting as hard as they are, how can glyphs randomly post at fall back prices with that much coverage?

This is a side effect of QA and heavy undercutting with long posting periods. As the price gets lower and lower, eventually it reaches the point where only one person is willing to post at that price. To QA, this glyph is now under the threshold for everyone else. QA will now skip this glyphs until the price goes back up. Either the low priced ones get purchased or they expire. If they expire, every glyph that was above that one will expire first.

This glyph becomes that last one. It holds everyone out of posting that glyphs until it disappears. Once it is gone from the AH, the next person is open to post at whatever price they want. Someone who works hard to reset the price of glyphs will see this loner and reset the market. But those people don’t take the time at every posting to do that.

The colors on the left indicate the value of the glyph. Red is near cost, orange is minimal profit, and green is all the mark up. Everyone undercuts in the green area, few will do so in the orange. This will cause many glyphs to cycle in price over and over. The worse the glyph is, the more often the glyph will cycle like this.

Buyers will bring some stability to glyphs and slow the cycle. Also someone liquidating leveling glyphs (they are not using QA anyway) will hold those down longer. But there are several lukewarm glyphs from research and books that will do this.

I do not expect every server to see this. For the longest time, I was the main cause of this effect on my server. Some things like this I don’t do as aggressively anymore. But it was a nice way to passively reset the glyph market when I did do that. All it takes is one person to post by hand or use some other logic to post glyphs with and that cycle can be interrupted.

October 7, 2009

Inscription: Step by Step Guide

Filed under: Inscription,wowbanker — Tags: — Kevmar @ 5:42 am

1) walk to auction house
2) talk to an auctioneer
3) type adder’s tongue in search box
4) click search
5) buy some of those
6) walk to mailbox
7) open mailbox
8) get everything out of mailbox into bags
9) mill all herbs
10) make ink of the sea
11) make snowfall ink
12) walk to inscription vendor
13) buy some parchment
14) make some glyphs
15) if you run out of parchment, go to step 13
16) if you run out of ink, go to step 1
17) walk to auction house
18) talk to an auctioneer
19) post glyphs on ah to sell
20) post snowfall ink on ah to sell
21) if you sold some glyphs, go to step 1
22) cancel glyphs that have been undercut
23) go to mailbox
24) collect glyphs from mailbox
25) send hate mail to people that undercut you
26) go to step 17

September 30, 2009

Inscription bags

Filed under: Inscription,Leatherworking,wowbanker — Tags: , — Kevmar @ 12:04 pm

Telburn just dropped a hot tip as a comment to one of my posts.

Inscription bags are a hot item at the moment. If you have some leather sitting on your leatherworker make up a batch of these. Normally inscription bags sell for less than the mats (the 2-3 times I ever looked at them) because they are a skill up item.

With the new guide posted on MMO-Champions, people are picking these up to jump start inscription. Remember the names of these people that buy 2-4 at a time from you. Add them to your friends list now. They are either the main or alt of one of the new players on your server.

The rush of new players

Filed under: Inscription,Thoughts,wowbanker — Tags: — Kevmar @ 5:55 am

It looks like we should be expecting a rush of new players to the glyph market soon. The Greedy Goblin gave some step by step screen shots that produced a few. Not it looks like mmo-champion just released a guide. This new guide will reach a much larger group of people that will understand it less.

The think this new group of people are going to focus on are how much they made the first day and how fast they sold glyphs. If you can poison those things from the start they will not last long at all.

If someone jumps into the market and has a huge day the first day, it will stick with them for a long time. That is what drives them to stick it out when the market turns down. Looking at the results I had before, I would last weeks on break even profits and not think twice about it.

If they shoot for full coverage of all glyphs, they will get several sales that first hour. That is so exciting. The higher the buy out the more the excitement. Nothing better than looking at big sales before you even log out.

How do you poison those experiences? Help the good glyphs crash and deep undercut them when you see a new name post on them. Then reset the crappy glyphs that you can.

First impressions matter. What they see in the market this first time will last. If you crash the good glyphs, they will think they are worthless. If you reset the crap ones, they will be so excited to list some so high and they will curse the market when they fall back down.

I had a few leveling glyphs sell at fall back prices when I first got started and I got very attached to them. It took me a while to break out of thinking they were some how worth more than the others.

I am sitting good on my server. Competition is already fierce so it is a great time for them to come and play. My ideas are all theory craft and I don’t plan on trying any of them. But it was interesting to think about.

Update: I wrote this before the guide was out but now that I see its up I have a few comments.

That threshold is way to high for my server. Even the lower one to drive out competition is not low enough to drive out competition on my server. I’m going to treat these guys just like all the other noobs that get QA for the first time.

I expect the market to dip a little for a few days and then back to normal for me. Good luck on your server.

September 29, 2009

Strange thing today

Filed under: Inscription,wowbanker — Tags: — Kevmar @ 6:15 pm

For the first time in a long time there were only 2471 glyphs on the AH after I finished posting. This was hovering in the 5000 range for a long time. I have 995 of them on the AH. So that puts 40% of them as my glyphs. Whats even stranger is that I raised my threshold up a gold this week so I posted less than I usually do.

I started buying herbs again because my stock of ink is getting low. The market felt a little dry but I was still able to pick up enough herbs at the prices I like.

September 21, 2009

Thunderdome: 2 scribes enter, only one will leave

Filed under: Inscription,Thoughts,wowbanker — Tags: — Kevmar @ 5:55 am

One common tactic in working the auction house is to drive your competition out. If they leave, you have it all to your self. The rewards can be huge if you do that and eventually become the major player. Sometime you have to drive off a major player and it could be more work than you think. People try to move into my glyphs all the time. It is a big market and no way can I control it all. Sometimes the market will crash and I wonder if someone is trying to drive me out or not.

So would it take to drive a player like me out of glyphs?

This can be harder than you think. Not all people play the glyph market like I do. When I moved in to the market someone was top dog and I don’t see them any more. I see people that could have the potential to take the market, but I am already established. They would have made a lot of gold with out me here.

I have a stack of every glyph. That is a ton of inventory. If for some reason my competition won and I decided to leave the market, I am not going to let that inventory sit. All that would have to be sold. If I am exiting the market, the threshold is no longer an issue and the market could easily fall. My competition would have to wait that out.

I run the lowest threshold. well, almost. I see leveling glyphs way below cost and flooded all the time. In general my threshold is lower then everyone else’s. It is still above what I think they pay for mats. Lats thing I want to do is post for less than it takes for them to make the glyphs. They would just crash the market and buy up my glyphs. It is still a profit for me but it adds time to myself and gives them a break.

I have the largest market coverage. I use 3 alts to post with and while I still need about 10-12 research glyphs, most people posting have not been doing it as long. Not many people track every glyph. If you were looking to drive me out, you need to cover all the glyphs I sell. Also be careful that I don’t cover all the glyphs they sell.

I drive the prices down constantly. If you think driving the prices down is going to tick me off, think again. I run a 20-60 silver undercut. That pushes glyphs down fairly fast. The harder my competition works to undercut me, the faster the prices fall. The result is usually some part time players leave the market opening up the research glyphs to just me. Fewer people means more sales for me.

The thing with the lowest threshold is that my mats are cheaper. Sometime I have a farmer that sells to me direct. When I tell them I will take all you have, they are happy to give it to me. I can often get all 3 of the high yield herbs for the same price. I love buying lichbloom for the farmer price of adder’s tongue. It is not very often that I resell it, but its extra profit when I do. I also check the AH several times a day for herb markets to crash or other farmers unloading under market price. I am probably a major factor keeping our herb prices stable.

I have a large stock of reserve herbs and ink. I have a 5 tab bank to hold my reserves when needed. It isn’t full all the time but it is not uncommon for me to fill it with herbs when I catch 2-3 farmer dumps within a few days. I try hard to mill/ink it as quick as I can, but a few 120 stack purchases can take a while to melt. I also have a 2nd guild bank that holds reserve ink of the sea. On any given day I have 3000-6000 ink of the sea in the bank. This helps when herb prices are high or glyph demand spikes.

I have gold in reserve and fingers in other markets. If I ran out of all my inventory of glyphs and herbs and ink, and if my farmers disappeared, and if the herbs on the ah were way over priced, I would still have the gold to go toe to toe with anyone in the market. I have a 3 months head start on any new player to the market. Look at the advantage that gives me.

I am not saying that I cannot be beaten or that it is impossible. The odds are just in my favor. I have the time and the patience to go along with it. I read all the same sites and have access to all the same mods. I have access to all the same tricks. Its possible they learned everything from me. I am just saying that I will not be an easy target so they need to be prepared.

Welcome to the Thunderdome.

September 12, 2009

Keyword: carpet bomb auction house

Filed under: Inscription,Keywords,wowbanker — Tags: — Kevmar @ 6:09 am

To carpet bomb auction house is to post a wide spread of items. This is commonly used with glyphs and jems. The way it works is to take just a few of every glyph or every gem you can cut and post all of them on the AH.

I carpet bomb glyphs. I take 2 of every glyph I can make and post them all on the AH. I under cut every glyph by a set amount. Someone like me that carpet bombs are playing the numbers. We expect so may people to buy our item but with so many categories and options, you never know what ones will sell that day. So by posting a glyph of each type, I know I will get the next sell no mater what glyph is purchased. I will keep getting sells until someone undercuts me.

In a market where you are the only one carpet bombing, you will have huge rewards with a small time investment. If everyone else does the same thing, you will have to post more often. I carpet bomb around 5 times a day at key times.

Sometimes I will have 1200+ glyphs on the AH from carpet bombing it. The people that are the best at this use Auctioneer’s batch posting or Quick Auction 2 to do it. I bet other mods can do it, these two are the ones I have used. I prefer QA for glyphs.

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